Rapid Risk Assessment Tool

Aligned with International Biosecurity Risk Assessment Guidelines. Alpha 0.9.46 (Precipice)

Assessor Details & Dates

Assessor Name

Assessment Date

Next Review Date

PRA At Risk Zone

Pest Identity

Common Name

Scientific Name

Pest Archetype

Risk Summary

Unrestricted Risk Estimate

Pending

Risk Components

Overall Likelihood: Pending

Overall Consequences: Pending

Likelihood Score Summary

Entry Potential: Pending

Establishment Potential: Pending

Spread Potential: Pending

Archetype Reference Table

Archetype	Definition	Examples (Plant Biosecurity Context)
Mobile Insect	Pests capable of independent movement (flying, crawling) to find hosts.	Bactrocera tryoni (Queensland fruit fly), Spodoptera frugiperda (Fall armyworm)
Hitchhiker Insect	Insects (often cryptic) that hide in non-commodity items (containers, machinery) and can survive long-distance transport.	Halyomorpha halys (BMSB), Trogoderma granarium (Khapra beetle), Lymantria dispar (Spongy moth)
Sedentary Snail	Molluscs that are largely sedentary, cryptic, and can enter diapause (aestivation) to survive transport.	Lissachatina fulica (Giant African snail), Cornu aspersum (Common garden snail)
Internal/Systemic Pathogen	Pathogens (bacteria, viruses) that live deep within host tissue (e.g., vascular system), are often asymptomatic, and spread via infected propagules.	Xylella fastidiosa, Candidatus Liberibacter (HLB), Plum Pox Virus (PPV)
Spore-Forming / Resilient Pathogen	Pathogens (fungi, bacteria) with highly durable survival structures (spores, sclerotia) resistant to environmental stress.	Puccinia graminis (Wheat stem rust), Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense (Panama disease)
Soil-borne Pathogen	Pathogens (oomycetes, fungi) that persist in soil/media and are primarily moved with soil or contaminated water.	Phytophthora ramorum (Sudden Oak Death), Globodera rostochiensis (Potato Cyst Nematode)
General (Non-Spore-Forming) Pathogen	Pathogens lacking resilient spores, often requiring moisture, host tissue, or biofilms for survival.	Erwinia amylovora (Fire blight), Xanthomonas citri (Citrus canker)
Systemic Pathogen (in propagules)	Pathogens (often viruses/viroids) that move within the host plant's vascular system and are primarily spread via infected planting material.	Potato spindle tuber viroid (PSTVd), Citrus tristeza virus (CTV) in budwood
Vector-Transmitted Pathogen	Pathogens (often viruses, phytoplasmas) requiring another organism (e.g., an insect) for transmission between hosts.	Barley yellow dwarf virus (aphids), Tomato spotted wilt virus (thrips)
Contact / Mechanical Pathogen	Highly stable pathogens (typically viruses/viroids) that can be spread efficiently through physical contact, contaminated tools, or machinery.	Tobacco mosaic virus (TMV), Cucumber green mottle mosaic virus (CGMMV)

Current Pathway:

Instructions

How to use this tool:

First, enter the Assessor & Pest details and select a Pest Archetype. Use the Pathway Manager to create and switch between assessments. Then complete all likelihood factors (Parts A-D) and the consequence assessment (Part E). Your progress is saved automatically.

Using Manual Override:

For any section (A-E), you can flip the "Manual" toggle switch in the section header. This will disable the questions in that section and allow you to select a final rating directly, which will be used in the final calculation.

Understanding Weightings:

Each question has a numerical weighting that allows you to fine-tune the risk model. These are pre-filled based on the selected Pest Archetype, but you can override them for your specific scenario.

A weight of 1.0 has a neutral effect.
A weight > 1.0 amplifies the importance of that factor in the calculation.
A weight > 1.0 reduces the importance of that factor.

The allowed range for custom weights is between 0.0 and 5.0.

Saved JSON files download to your browser's default Downloads folder.

Reference Diagrams

Standard Pathways Reference

Pathway Code	Pathway Name	Description	Typical Archetype
P01	Cut Flowers & Greens	Freshly cut floral material, foliage, and ornamental greens for arrangements	Mobile Insect
P02	Live Plants (Potted)	Potted ornamental plants, nursery stock, and seedlings in growing medium	Sedentary Snail / Mobile Insect
P03	Seed Potatoes	Seed tubers for planting, high risk for soil-borne pathogens	Soil-borne Pathogen
P04	Fresh Fruit	Edible fruit for human consumption, may carry fruit flies or pathogens	Mobile Insect
P05	Grains & Cereals	Bulk grain shipments, potential for grain borers and stored-product pests	Hitchhiker Insect
P06	Propagating Material	Tissue culture, cuttings, scion wood, and other vegetative propagation material	Internal/Systemic Pathogen
P07	Soil & Compost	Growing media, soil amendments, and organic matter — high biosecurity risk	Soil-borne Pathogen
P08	Timber & Wood Products	Logs, sawn timber, plywood, and wood packaging material	Hitchhiker Insect
P09	Dried Plant Material	Herbs, spices, dried flowers, and botanicals	Spore-Forming Pathogen
P10	Vegetables (Fresh)	Fresh vegetable produce for human consumption	Mobile Insect / Vector Pathogen

Pathway codes are reference identifiers. Actual pathway names are user-defined in the Pathway Manager.

Risk Estimation Matrix

Likelihood	Consequences
Likelihood	Negligible	Extremely low	Very low	Low	Moderate	High	Extreme
High	Negligible	Extremely low	Very low	Low	Moderate	High	Extreme
Moderate	Negligible	Extremely low	Very low	Low	Moderate	High	Extreme
Low	Negligible	Negligible	Extremely low	Very low	Low	Moderate	High
Very low	Negligible	Negligible	Negligible	Extremely low	Very low	Low	Moderate
Extremely low	Negligible	Negligible	Negligible	Negligible	Extremely low	Very low	Low
Negligible	Negligible	Negligible	Negligible	Negligible	Negligible	Extremely low	Very low

Likelihood Definitions

Likelihood	Indicative Probability
High	The event would be very likely to occur ( ≥ 0.7 )
Moderate	The event would be likely to occur ( > 0.3 – < 0.7 )
Low	The event would be unlikely to occur ( > 0.05 – 0.3 )
Very low	The event would be very unlikely to occur ( > 0.001 – 0.05 )
Extremely low	The event would be extremely unlikely to occur ( > 0.000001 – 0.001 )
Negligible	The event would be so rare that it is not worth considering ( ≤ 0.000001 )

Matrix of Rules for Combining Likelihoods (DAFF Table 2)

Likelihood 1	Likelihood 2
Likelihood 1	High	Moderate	Low	Very low	Extremely low	Negligible
High	High	Moderate	Low	Very low	Extremely low	Negligible
Moderate	Moderate	Low	Low	Very low	Extremely low	Negligible
Low	Low	Low	Very low	Very low	Extremely low	Negligible
Very low	Very low	Very low	Very low	Extremely low	Extremely low	Negligible
Extremely low	Extremely low	Extremely low	Extremely low	Extremely low	Negligible	Negligible
Negligible	Negligible	Negligible	Negligible	Negligible	Negligible	Negligible

Consequence Calculation Reference

Score	Impact Level	Local	District	Regional	National
0	Indiscernible	A	A	A	A
1	Minor	B	C	D	E
2	Significant	C	D	E	F
3	Major	D	E	F	G

How consequences are calculated:

Each of 6 criteria (Plant Health, Direct Env, Control Costs, Indirect Env, Domestic Trade, Int'l Trade) is rated 0–3 for each of 4 scales (Local, District, Regional, National).
The CONSEQUENCE_IMPACT_MATRIX maps each score to an impact level (A–G).
For each criterion, the highest impact grade (A–G) across its 4 scales is locked as that criterion's impact.
The overall consequence rating combines the 6 per-criterion grades using DAFF Table A.3 rules (mutually exclusive, assessed in order):
Rule 1 (Extreme): ≥1 grade G, or ≥2 grades F, or a single F with every other criterion E.
Rule 2 (High): a single F, or all criteria at E.
Rule 3 (Moderate): ≥1 grade E, or all criteria at D.
Rule 4 (Low): ≥1 grade D, or all criteria at C.
Rule 5 (Very low): ≥1 grade C, or all criteria at B.
Rule 6 (Negligible): all criteria at A (or B with the rest A).